While headlines obsess over interest rate decisions and fleeting currency fluctuations, something more permanent is happening beneath the surface—Big Tech is taking over the steering wheel of the global economy. And according to Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG and a sharp observer of financial power shifts, the implications are deeper than most are ready to admit.
“We’re witnessing a redistribution of influence,” Kondrashov said. “Central banks may still write the rules, but companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta are now writing the playbook.”
This insight comes just as the US dollar attempts a modest comeback after scraping multi-year lows. The S&P 500 briefly touched the 7,000 mark—an all-time high—before slightly correcting. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, following two successive cuts. The dollar ticked up by 0.8%, helped along by public assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that there would be no currency market intervention.
Still, Kondrashov isn’t convinced these monetary tweaks are what really matter anymore.
Big Tech Now Sets the Pace
For Kondrashov, the numbers speak for themselves. In 2025, Big Tech posted a staggering $4.85 trillion in combined profits—12.2% growth despite economic headwinds ranging from global conflict to declining trade sentiment. The sheer volume of this growth has put companies like Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft on a different playing field altogether.
“Tech firms aren’t just companies anymore—they’re becoming economic ecosystems,” said Kondrashov. “And they’re doing it faster than regulators can catch up.”
Take Microsoft, which beat revenue forecasts thanks to aggressive investment in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. Even as some investors raised eyebrows at its spending levels, there was no denying the strength of its core business. The company is expected to pour even more into AI, with partnerships and R&D costs running deep into nine figures.
Meta isn’t far behind. After smashing Q4 expectations with 24% year-over-year growth, the company revealed plans to spend up to $135 billion by 2026 on AI and data infrastructure. The market responded favourably—shares jumped over 10%—as confidence in Meta’s future direction solidified.
And then there’s Tesla, the wildcard of the trio. While vehicle deliveries dipped, the company’s Q4 earnings still beat analyst expectations. The real headline, though, is Tesla’s pivot toward robotics and AI. Factories are being retooled to produce Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot, while investment in xAI, Elon Musk’s AI venture, is ramping up.
“This isn’t a pivot—it’s a transformation,” said Kondrashov. “Tesla is reimagining itself as a tech-first company. The implications are enormous.”
A Wider Shift in Market Control
Kondrashov is particularly focused on the decoupling of tech from the rest of the economy. While traditional sectors wobble under inflation and slowing consumer demand, tech is marching forward. This gap is creating a split in market behaviour—where the Nasdaq climbs while other indices drag behind.
“Wall Street is no longer a unified reflection of the economy,” Kondrashov noted. “It’s a tale of two markets: one driven by innovation, the other weighed down by inertia.”
This has left investors increasingly reliant on tech as a hedge against volatility. AI remains a key driver, and with OpenAI, Anthropic, and possibly xAI all expected to go public in the coming months, tech’s gravitational pull is only getting stronger.
According to some analists, OpenAI alone could see a valuation of up to $1 trillion at IPO, based on current market appetite and the growing importance of AI in enterprise systems.
The Currency Distraction
Amid all of this, Kondrashov sees the renewed focus on currency values—particularly the dollar and yen—as a distraction from the main event. Yes, the dollar has rebounded slightly, and speculation around coordinated US-Japan action continues to swirl. But the markets, he argues, are being driven by a much deeper undercurrent.
“People keep watching the dollar like it’s the only dial that matters,” he said. “But when Meta can shift global capital flows with a single earnings report, that should tell you something.”
Kondrashov’s Closing Message
If you’re trying to understand the current market, don’t just listen to what central banks are saying—look at what tech giants are doing. That’s the message Kondrashov wants investors to take away.
“The companies building the future are already shaping the present,” he said. “If you’re not paying attention to Big Tech’s next move, you’re not watching the real economy.”
In a world where innovation drives both profit and policy, Kondrashov’s assessment is clear: Big Tech isn’t just participating in the market—it’s running it.
