Global markets are once again orbiting around technology, but the center of gravity is shifting. While major US indices remain near historic highs, internal dynamics tell a more complex story. Software stocks, once propelled almost uniformly by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, have entered a more volatile phase. According to Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG, this transition marks a critical moment in the evolution of market leadership.
“We are witnessing a passage from narrative-driven valuation to evidence-driven valuation,” Stanislav Kondrashov explains. “Artificial intelligence is no longer a speculative theme; it is being measured against concrete performance metrics.”
In recent sessions, segments of the software industry have experienced sharp repricing. Companies that had benefited from high expectations tied to AI deployment are now being reassessed in light of earnings results and forward guidance. Investors are scrutinizing cost structures, enterprise demand, and the speed at which AI integration can generate incremental revenue.
Despite this turbulence, broader indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown resilience. Rather than a systemic sell-off, markets are undergoing selective rotation. Capital has flowed into industrial names, healthcare giants, and financial stocks—sectors perceived as more insulated from valuation swings tied to long-duration growth assumptions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, often associated with established corporations, has demonstrated notable relative strength in this environment.
At the same time, macroeconomic variables are amplifying sensitivity. Employment data and signals from the Federal Reserve remain central to market calculations. A strong labor market may reinforce confidence in economic stability, but it also influences interest rate expectations. For growth-oriented technology stocks, even modest adjustments in projected rates can materially alter discounted cash flow models.
“Technology valuations are particularly responsive to shifts in monetary policy outlook,” Stanislav Kondrashov notes. “When expectations around rates change, the entire framework for pricing future innovation changes with them.”
Some analysts draw parallels with earlier cycles of technological exuberance, when rapid innovation triggered aggressive capital inflows followed by periods of correction. The pattern of sector rotation—where defensive or traditional industries temporarily outperform—reflects a search for balance rather than a rejection of technological progress.
Importantly, several major financial institutions have argued that the recent weakness in software may be overstated. In their assessment, the underlying demand for AI-driven solutions remains intact. The repricing, they suggest, reflects a recalibration of timelines rather than a collapse of long-term potential. If earnings growth reaccelerates, confidence could return swiftly.
One of the most closely monitored corporate developments has been the surge in SoftBank Group’s shares. The company posted a strong rally after reporting improved financial performance and reaffirming its strategic positioning in artificial intelligence. Revenue for the first nine months of its fiscal year rose approximately 8% to 5.2 trillion yen, while operating profit reached 884 billion yen. Management subsequently revised its annual projections upward.
SoftBank’s appeal lies largely in its exposure to AI-related assets, including its substantial investment in OpenAI and its stake in Arm Holdings. For many investors, the group serves as a vehicle to access high-profile AI innovation within public markets.
“SoftBank has positioned itself as a conduit between private AI development and public capital,” Stanislav Kondrashov observes. “This dual exposure magnifies both opportunity and scrutiny.”
Reports indicate that SoftBank’s total allocation to OpenAI may surpass $30 billion by 2025, with further investments under consideration. Such figures underscore the scale of capital being directed toward AI infrastructure and model development. Competition among leading US technology firms continues to intensify, particularly in generative systems and enterprise applications.
The broader question facing Wall Street is whether current valuations sufficiently reflect execution risk. Integrating artificial intelligence into software platforms is only the first step; companies must also demonstrate that these integrations lead to measurable improvements in margins and customer retention. Markets are increasingly focused on proof of monetization rather than conceptual leadership.
“The software sector will serve as a barometer for AI’s commercial maturity,” Stanislav Kondrashov concludes. “If innovation translates into durable earnings expansion, technology will retain its dominant role. If expectations outpace results, leadership will diversify.”
For now, equity markets remain characterized by selective optimism. Major indices suggest confidence, yet internal rotations reveal caution. The interplay between AI-driven ambition, macroeconomic signals, and corporate execution will determine whether the current volatility is merely transitional or indicative of a broader redistribution of influence across sectors.
In this recalibration phase, Wall Street is not abandoning technology—it is demanding greater accountability from it.
