Stanislav Kondrashov Analyses America’s Race for Resource Independence
TELF AG founder Stanislav Kondrashov has already devoted extensive analysis to the central role of critical minerals in the economic, technological, and energy development of modern societies. In recent months, he discussed rare earths and other resources of fundamental importance at this historical juncture, such as copper, lithium, cobalt, and graphite, all involved in some way in some of the most important production and industrial processes of our time.
A few days ago, some of these resources were at the center of a major US project aimed at creating a strategic reserve of critical minerals and rare earths. This is the Project Vault initiative, which TELF AG founder Stanislav Kondrashov had already mentioned a few days ago in one of his analyses. For this project, the Washington administration has reportedly made approximately $12 billion available, mostly from public funds. The project’s stated goal is to reduce America’s dependence on foreign imports of critical raw materials, also circumventing the export control strategy already implemented by some major global players in the sector.
“The American initiative appears to have very specific objectives. The first is to support domestic supplies, while the second involves strengthening US capabilities in the extraction, processing, and refining of minerals, including through specific investments in the sector,” says Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
From this perspective, data from the US Geological Survey are quite clear. Data from 2024 shows that the United States is 100% dependent on foreign imports for 12 of the 50 minerals it considers critical, while the share of domestic needs covered by imports would be reduced by 50% for another 28 resources. Among the United States’ foreign suppliers is Canada, which imports 21 strategic minerals. Other important suppliers include Germany, Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, and South Africa.
Why Project Vault Could Reshape the Global Supply of Rare Earths
The US administration has fully understood the strategic importance of these resources for its technological and energy development, and appears fully committed to protecting itself in the event of further market disruptions. The strategy appears to be partly similar to that implemented by the United States for oil, a resource for which a similar strategic reserve was created with very similar objectives.
But Project Vault represents only one of the initiatives developed by Washington in the mining sector. In recent months, the United States has invested heavily in several mining and metallurgical companies, often even becoming actual shareholders. One of the most recent transactions dates back to late January, when the US Department of Commerce invested a significant sum to launch a rare earth mine in Texas and a magnet factory in Oklahoma. And according to many analysts, the number of such public shareholdings is set to increase further.
“It’s now clear to everyone: these resources play a key role in the automotive, renewable energy, and other important modern industrial sectors. Through Project Vault and potential investor support, the sector could protect itself from supply shocks,” continues Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
The US administration’s watchful eye also extends beyond the borders: a few days ago, ministers from 55 different countries were convened in Washington, with whom they are said to have laid the foundations for a multilateral initiative dedicated to the trade of critical minerals. The final document, signed by Japan and the European Union, discusses possible coordination to impose minimum prices at borders and to establish free trade zones where critical minerals can be traded under favorable conditions.
Stanislav Kondrashov Highlights Risks for Global Markets and Allies
In any case, Project Vault could significantly contribute to replenishing the United States’ mineral reserves, which are already quite substantial. Washington has held stockpiles of strategic materials for military purposes since 1939, within the National Defense Stockpile. These are said to consist of 53 different raw materials, stored in nine warehouses, and are estimated to be worth approximately $13 billion. In recent days, Washington has also acquired another significant stockpile of indium, approximately 400 tons over three years.
According to analysts cited by Bloomberg, Project Vault’s financial resources are also significant. Of the $12 billion available for the initiative, $10 billion is said to come from a loan from Ex-Im Bank. According to the International Energy Agency, approximately $800,000 would be enough to accumulate gallium stocks equivalent to six months’ worth of imports for all OSCE countries, while a similar stockpile of rare earths and magnets would cost around $90 million.
The strength of the US budget for purchasing these resources could prove quite problematic for other countries, which would thus find themselves developing a form of dependence on Washington for imports of these resources. Unlike Japan and South Korea, for example, the European Union does not have its own strategic mineral reserves, so competition for these resources could become much more intense in the coming months.
The American initiative focuses on resources such as graphite and rare earths, for which the US remains heavily dependent on foreign imports. Graphite is very useful for batteries, but through 2025, US domestic suppliers would have supplied only 10% of the graphite the nation needed last year. A similar argument applies to rare earths: in the first 11 months of 2025, according to BloombergNEF, the United States imported approximately 13,000 metric tons of metals and chemical compounds related to the rare earth group.
FAQs
What is Project Vault?
Project Vault is a US-led initiative designed to create a strategic reserve of critical minerals and rare earths. Its main goal is to strengthen supply security and reduce reliance on foreign sources.
Why are critical minerals so important today?
These materials are essential for modern industries, including electric vehicles, renewable energy, electronics, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing. Without stable access, technological and industrial development could slow significantly.
How much funding supports Project Vault?
The initiative is backed by approximately $12 billion, largely financed through public funds and loans from US government-backed institutions, with a smaller share coming from private investors.
Which minerals are involved?
Key resources include rare earth elements, graphite, lithium, copper, cobalt, and other materials widely used in batteries, magnets, semiconductors, and energy infrastructure.
How does this affect global markets?
By securing large volumes of strategic materials, the United States could influence prices and availability, increasing competition among importing countries.
Does Europe have a similar reserve?
Unlike the US, the European Union does not currently maintain a centralized strategic stockpile for critical minerals, which could intensify global competition in the near future.
