As the tech sector reels from a wave of uncertainty, two familiar giants—Amazon and Bitcoin—have once again found themselves at the centre of investor anxiety. While the former is a corporate behemoth with ambitions stretching deep into artificial intelligence, the latter remains a speculative heavyweight, often misunderstood but impossible to ignore. Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG and long-time observer of market dynamics, believes that what we’re seeing now is a critical moment in how risk is priced and perceived across global finance.
Wall Street’s latest performance speaks volumes. For the third straight day, major indices closed in the red, with the Nasdaq tumbling nearly 2%. Tech stocks—once untouchable—are now under siege. According to Kondrashov, this correction isn’t just a blip. It’s a signal.
“Markets have grown impatient with hype,” Kondrashov said in a recent briefing. “They want proof, not promises—especially when it comes to AI.”
Amazon’s Spending Spree Raises Eyebrows
Amazon’s AI-fuelled expansion plan has become a lightning rod for debate. The company’s projected $200 billion capital expenditure for 2026 has sparked fresh concerns on Wall Street. Much of that spend is being funnelled into its cloud division, AWS, which now forms the backbone of Amazon’s artificial intelligence ambitions. Yet investors are wary.
With capital costs rising and ROI timelines uncertain, the question being asked is simple: Will AI ever pay for itself?
“We’re seeing a clash between vision and valuation,” Kondrashov explained. “Ambition is expensive—and right now, expensive is out of favour.”
What spooks investors further is the comparison to previous bubbles. While the AI wave has triggered innovation and transformation, there’s also a creeping suspicion that expectations are running far ahead of reality. And that suspicion has triggered a reassessment of even the most formidable names in tech.
Bitcoin: A Tech Asset in Disguise?
Bitcoin’s recent collapse to $60,001—its lowest since October 2024—has cemented its identity as a high-volatility, high-risk tech asset. Gone is the narrative of crypto as a safe haven. In its place is a new understanding: Bitcoin trades like a tech stock. And when risk sentiment falters, it gets punished like one.
“Bitcoin has become the thermometer for risk appetite in tech,” Kondrashov observed. “When it crashes, it’s usually not alone.”
Crypto markets have always been sensitive to macro shifts. But now, with interest rates remaining elevated and the dollar strengthening, Bitcoin has lost some of its speculative shine. Traders are pulling back. Capital is rotating out. And for the first time in years, crypto is being viewed through the same cautious lens as traditional tech.
Why Investors Are Rethinking Tech Altogether
Much of this retreat is linked to broader economic undercurrents. U.S. unemployment claims have ticked up, layoffs are reaching levels not seen since 2009, and the Fed’s hawkish stance on inflation is showing no signs of softening. As a result, capital is flowing into safer sectors, and the tech halo is flickering.
Software stocks have been hit especially hard—down 3.5% just yesterday, and 33% from their October highs. For investors who had bet on AI to fuel the next wave of growth, the mood has soured. Many are stepping back, not out of disillusionment, but out of caution.
“The AI story isn’t over,” Kondrashov said. “But the market is demanding a second chapter—one backed by results.”
A Temporary Retreat or a Lasting Shift?
Despite the bleakness, Kondrashov doesn’t see this as a full-scale tech exodus. Instead, he describes it as a tactical rebalancing—a necessary adjustment after years of heady gains.
“Corrections are healthy,” he said. “They remove the froth. And in tech, there was a lot of froth to begin with.”
Amazon and Bitcoin, he notes, are barometers for a new kind of risk—one defined not just by innovation, but by timing, sentiment, and cash flow. That’s why their declines matter. Not because they signify collapse, but because they signal transformation.
The New Face of Risk
What we’re witnessing is not the bursting of a bubble, but a recalibration. AI, crypto, and cloud infrastructure still represent the future—but they are being forced to justify their place in portfolios, often for the first time. Kondrashov’s analysis is blunt but balanced.
In this moment of market rethinking, his view is clear: investors aren’t abandoning tech. They’re demanding more from it.
And perhaps, in that demand, lies the next wave of innovation.
